Portfolio targets

Generated 2026-09-17T16:46:16+00:00 (content is versioned in the repo, not market-driven)

Fed dots rollover flag: FALSE · updated 2026-09-16 · Sep 2026 FOMC hiked to 3.75-4.00%; median dot 4.125% -> false · source: config.json

Phase 1 targets — current base (USD 1,113,541)

Sleeve	Role	Target	Target USD
IB01 / SGOV	T-bill carry (cash-equivalent)	36%	$400,875
TLT / IDTL	Long duration (20Y+ Treasuries)	8%	$89,083
TIP / IDTP	Inflation-linked Treasuries	4%	$44,542
COWZ	Quality value equity (free cash flow)	15%	$167,031
XLV	Healthcare equity (defensive)	6%	$66,812
GRID	Grid / electrification capex equity	6%	$66,812
GLDM / SGLD	Gold	15%	$167,031
AMLP	Energy infrastructure carry (MLPs)	6%	$66,812
PDBC	Broad commodities (no K-1)	4%	$44,542
Total		100%	$1,113,540

Dollar figures are rounded to the nearest dollar; the total can differ from the base by a dollar or two.

Regime: supply shock / reflation. Fed funds 3.75–4.00% after the September 2026 hike, with the median dot at 4.125%+. 10Y ≈ 5.00%, 30Y 5.34%. Oil above $100 and backwardated. ISM 54.6. Initial claims ≈ 206k.
Credit bifurcation: aggregate HY OAS is tight (276 bps) while CCC & lower trades at 1085 bps — lower-tier credit is pricing stress the headline gates do not see (tracked on the dashboard's Credit Bifurcation Watch card).
Construction: 40% in carry + TIPS + gold earning a positive real yield; duration capped at 8–10% with a 5.40% weekly-close invalidation on the 10Y; cyclical carry (AMLP + PDBC) capped at 10%; no options or derivatives; ETF-only (including LSE UCITS lines where noted).

2B replaces 2A only when fed_dots_rollover in config.json flips to true — currently FALSE — 2A remains the rotation target.