Regime analog — 2007 / 2022 / today
Static analysis page; the TODAY column is filled live from /status.json at view time — it refreshes with every daily deploy without code changes. Live values loading…
Cycle fingerprint
| Feature | 2007 | 2022 | Today (live) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y at multi-decade high | No — peaked ~5.3% (Jun 2007), mid-range for the post-1990 regime | Building — 0.5% → 4.25% by Oct 2022, highest since 2007 | — |
| Fed hiking into it | Yes — 17 hikes 2004–06 to 5.25%, on hold into the Oct 2007 peak | Yes — 0 → 4.50% in nine months, fastest cycle since Volcker | Yes — Sep 2026 hike to 3.75–4.00%, median dot 4.125%+ |
| Aggregate HY near record tights, with CCC cracked | Yes — HY OAS ~260 bps (Jun 2007) near record tights; CCC already leaking wider | No — HY widened with equities to ~600 bps; no bifurcation | — |
| ISM / claims strong at the peak | Yes — ISM ~52 and claims ~300k at the peak; labor confirmed nothing | Yes — claims ~200k at the Jan 2022 peak | — |
| Refinancing wall | ARM resets into 5%+ mortgage rates (2006–08); lagging, then detonated | Muted — termed-out corporate debt; stress surfaced in duration (gilts, SVB) | HY wall 2026–28: refis into ~8–9% coupons against ~4% legacy |
| Oil-supply inflation overlay | Demand-led — oil $60 → $140 into 2008; CPI ~4% | Yes — Brent > $120 after the invasion; CPI 9.1% | Oil > $100, backwardated |
| Fiscal-driven term premium | No — deficit ~1% of GDP; term premium compressed | Emerging — QT plus the gilt-crisis preview | Yes — 30Y 5.34%; deficits ~6–7% of GDP funding the long end |
Historical cells are rounded recollections for pattern-matching, not precise series values. TODAY cells marked live are read from the daily monitor output.
Verdict
2007 is the skeleton (cycle position: yield-wall, record-tight bifurcating credit, lagging refi wall, strong lagging labor data); 2022 is the skin (supply-side inflation, positive stock-bond correlation, Fed hiking into strength). Forward base case: 2007 sequencing with 2022 stickiness — yields exhaust first, credit velocity fires 1–3 months later, but the duration rally stalls nearer 4.25% than 3.80%. Tail case: 1973–74 stagflation (see /backtest-70s/) — the one episode class no equity-peak monitor catches; controlled via contango-flip exit, 5.40% invalidation, and the 40% carry/TIPS/gold block.
Why this supports the production monitor
The episode class most like today (credit-led systemic) is the class the v1 monitor historically catches with lead — that is the basis for keeping v1 frozen as the trading system while v2/v3 remain research tracks.