Deployment plan

Generated 2026-11-14T02:02:22+00:00 (content is versioned in the repo, not market-driven)

Fed dots rollover flag: FALSE · updated 2026-09-16 · Sep 2026 FOMC hiked to 3.75-4.00%; median dot 4.125% -> false · source: config.json

Deployment plan — Stage-1 barbell

Sleeve	Deploy now	Remainder	Rotation / invalidation
Carry · IB01 38% + IBKR cash 2%	Full now — carry has no timing dimension	—	v1 red → rotate per the Stage 2A table
Duration starters · IDTL 6% + IDTP 5%	Full now — starters; adds are state-triggered, not price-triggered	—	v1 red → Stage 2A/2B duration targets; TAIL_OVERRIDE → freeze duration adds
SGLD · 15%	Full now — structural holding	—	soft-landing falsifier → cut gold to 10%
COWZ (LSE UCITS line) · 14%	60% of target now	remainder on an SPX −3–5% pullback OR by 2026-10-31, whichever comes first	soft-landing falsifier → raise to 18–20%
XLV · 6%	60% of target now	remainder on an SPX −3–5% pullback OR by 2026-10-31, whichever comes first	v1 red → per the Stage 2A table
GRID · 4%	60% of target now	remainder on an SPX −3–5% pullback OR by 2026-10-31, whichever comes first	v1 red → per the Stage 2A table
AMLP · 6%	60% of target now	remainder on an SPX −3–5% pullback OR by 2026-10-31, whichever comes first	v1 red → exit (0% in Stage 2A)
PDBC · 4%	60% of target now	remainder on an SPX −3–5% pullback OR by 2026-10-31, whichever comes first	v1 red → exit (0% in Stage 2A)

State keys for the rotation column: v1 red = the main dashboard status flips to PHASE_2 (red banner) → rotate per the Stage 2A table. TAIL_OVERRIDE = the stagflation-tail overlay (v7 live track) → freeze all duration adds. Soft-landing falsifier = Brent < $75 AND core inflation ≤ 2.5% AND HY OAS < 300 bps → COWZ to 18–20%, gold to 10%.

Defensive-level playbook (while v7 = ELEVATED or MAXIMUM):

No rotation. ELEVATED/MAXIMUM = a v7 defensive level hot without the confirmation quorum; rotation requires level + quorum (Stage 2A).
Tranche-2 calendar leg suspended; the pullback leg (SPX −3–5%) remains.
v7 levels are raw daily signals (no latch), so the state clears as soon as fewer than 2 of the 4 Level-1 legs fire (or B OAS falls back below 450 bps).
Manual watch — context (non-trigger): Jupiter loan < 85¢; ORCL CDS > 250bp; CRWV CDS > 800bp; H100 rental < $1.70.

Execution notes: LSE UCITS lines settle T+2 versus T+1 for US lines — keep a $20–25k settled-cash buffer so tranche adds are never blocked by unsettled sales.