Monitor v4 — live research track

Data as of 2026-09-17 · generated 2026-09-17T16:46:30+00:00 · previous v4 state: PHASE_1

RESEARCH TRACK — parameters frozen 2026-09-17 (? days frozen); do not trade from this page alone. This page is not the production monitor — the production signal is on the main dashboard. Rules: backtest v3.

Fed dots rollover flag: FALSE · updated 2026-09-16 · Sep 2026 FOMC hiked to 3.75-4.00%; median dot 4.125% -> false · PHASE 2B requires this flag on top of 2A

v4 state

PHASE_1

0 sessions in state

Tier-2 quorum (latched)

1 / 6 (not met, need 2)

10Y weekly close

5.00% vs 5.40%

week ending 2026-09-18 (current week partial) · invalidation above 5.40%

Tier 1 gates (45-session latch)

G1 · HY credit stress

COLD

HY 270 bps · 20d -3 bps
HY OAS +65 bps over 20 sessions OR >= 425 bps
last fire 2025-04-23 (352 sessions ago)

G2 · CCC stress

COLD

CCC 1,076 bps · 20d +46 bps
CCC & Lower OAS >= 12.0% OR +150 bps over 20 sessions
last fire 2025-04-22 (353 sessions ago)

G3 · yield exhaustion

COLD

10Y 5.00% · z200 +2.58
DGS10 >= 5.10% OR 200-day z >= +3.0
last fire 2026-05-19 (83 sessions ago)

Tier 2 confirmations (15-session latch)

#	Confirmation	Latest vs trigger	State (raw / 15d latch)	Recency
1	ISM manufacturing PMI INACTIVE <= 50 OR 3-month delta <= -5	n/a — series removed from FRED	COLD	never fired in window
2	Initial claims, 4-week MA >= trailing 1-year min + 25k	203,250 vs trigger 224,000	COLD	last fire 2025-09-19 (249 sessions ago)
3	GLD/CPER ratio > 1.15 x 50-day SMA	10.002 vs trigger 11.462	COLD	last fire 2025-09-08 (258 sessions ago)
4	SPHB/SPLV ratio < 50-day SMA	1.996 vs SMA50 1.931	LATCHED	last fire 2026-09-02 (10 sessions ago) · latch expires in 5 sessions
5	BNO 20-day return <= -8.0%	+16.59%	COLD	last fire 2026-07-10 (48 sessions ago)
6	10Y-2Y Treasury spread >= trailing 12-month min + 0.25	+0.27 vs trigger +0.52	COLD	last fire 2026-08-18 (21 sessions ago)

Rules summary (frozen 2026-09-17)

PHASE 2A: any Tier 1 gate latched hot AND ≥2 Tier 2 confirmations latched hot. ARMED: a Tier 1 latch hot without the quorum. PHASE 1: otherwise. PHASE 2B: 2A plus the manual fed-dots rollover flag (config.json).
Exits from 2A: HY < 50d SMA (≈272 bps) ×3 sessions · time stop 0/60 · SPHB/SPLV above 50d SMA (1.931).
Full ruleset, backtest, and the design-contamination disclosure: backtest v3. v3/v4 were designed after observing v2's 2021–2026 out-of-sample failure, so historical results on that window are illustrative only — the true test is forward performance from 2026-09-17.
Fail-safe data handling: a series that fails to load never counts as triggered and is listed under "errors" in status.json. The ISM leg is inactive (ISM withdrew the series from FRED).