Monitor v5 — live research track

Data as of 2026-09-23 · generated 2026-09-23T15:34:57+00:00 · previous v5 state: PHASE_1

RESEARCH TRACK — parameters frozen 2026-09-21 (? days since frozen); do not trade from this page. Production signal is the main dashboard. v5 was designed after observing the v1–v3 results; historical metrics are illustrative only. Rules: backtest v5.

Fed-rollover flag (automated): FALSE · DGS2 4.76% vs target midpoint 3.875% (DFEDTARU 4.00 / DFEDTARL 3.75) − 0.25 · computed from FRED daily; config.json is not used · PHASE 2B requires this flag on top of 2A

DATA-SUSPECT: the Brent spot input (FRED DCOILBRENTEU) deviates > 15% from the BZ=F front-month close; the BZ=F close stands in on 41 suspect session(s) for the tail-override and oil-proxy inputs.

Data quality (fail-closed):

c4 futures contract BZV26.NYM unavailable: ValueError: yfinance returned no data for BZV26.NYM

v5 state

PHASE_1

44 sessions in state

Tier-2 quorum (latched)

1 / 5 (not met, need 2)

C4 oil-leg source today

futures spread

logged daily in status.json · proxy fallback when the +6M contract is unavailable/thin

TAIL_OVERRIDE inputs

inactive (0d)

10Y weekly close 4.96% > 5.40% (week ending 2026-09-25, partial) · Brent spot $108.75 > $120 (source: BZ=F close (data-suspect fallback), raw $130.80) · joint: False · 7478 sessions lapsed

Tier 1 gates (45-session latch)

G1 · HY credit stress

COLD

HY 268 bps · 20d -1 bps
HY OAS +65 bps over 20 sessions OR >= 425 bps
last fire 2025-04-23 (355 sessions ago)

G2 · CCC stress

COLD

CCC 1,075 bps · 20d +39 bps
CCC & Lower OAS >= 1200 bps OR +150 bps over 20 sessions
last fire 2025-04-22 (356 sessions ago)

G3 · yield exhaustion

COLD

10Y 4.96% · z200 +2.29
DGS10 >= 5.10% OR 200-day z >= +3.0
last fire 2026-05-19 (86 sessions ago)

Tier 2 confirmations (15-session latch)

#	Confirmation	Latest vs trigger	State (raw / 15d latch)	Recency
1	C1 · Initial claims, 4-week MA >= trailing 1-year min + 25k	203,250 vs trigger 224,000	COLD	last fire 2025-09-19 (252 sessions ago)
2	C2 · GLD/CPER ratio > 1.15 x 50-day SMA	9.675 vs trigger 11.459	COLD	last fire 2025-09-08 (261 sessions ago)
3	C3 · SPHB/SPLV ratio < 50-day SMA	2.125 vs SMA50 1.940	LATCHED	last fire 2026-09-02 (13 sessions ago) · latch expires in 2 sessions
4	C4 · Brent term structure source: brent_futures_spread prompt-to-6M spread <= $0.50/bbl (fallback proxy: BNO 60-day minus Brent spot 60-day <= -2%)	+7.60 $/bbl (BZ=F 97.41 vs BZH27.NYM 89.81) FUTURES SPREAD	COLD	last fire 2026-07-07 (54 sessions ago) fires in latch window: none
5	C5 · 10Y-2Y Treasury spread >= trailing 12-month min + 0.25	+0.25 vs trigger +0.45	COLD	last fire 2026-08-18 (24 sessions ago)

Rules summary (frozen 2026-09-21)

PHASE 2A: any Tier 1 gate latched hot AND ≥2 of 5 Tier 2 confirmations latched hot. ARMED: a Tier 1 latch hot without the quorum. PHASE 1: otherwise. PHASE 2B: 2A plus the automated Fed-rollover flag above. TAIL_OVERRIDE: 10Y weekly close > 5.40% AND Brent spot > $120 — supersedes all states and suppresses 2A/2B rotation instructions while active; exits when either condition lapses for 5 sessions.
Exits from 2A/2B (first wins): HY < 50d SMA (≈271 bps) ×3 consecutive sessions · SPHB/SPLV > 50d SMA (1.940) ×3 consecutive sessions · time stop 0/60 sessions. Cooldown after any exit: 0/10 sessions remaining.
Full ruleset, backtest, and the design-contamination disclosure: backtest v5. v5 was designed after observing the v1–v3 results, so its historical record is illustrative only — the true test is forward performance from 2026-09-21.
Fail-safe data handling: a series that fails to load never counts as triggered and is listed under "errors" in status.json.